Saturday, February 1, 2020

The UK Left the EU

Well Brexit finally happened.  Yesterday, after 47 years, the United Kingdom officially left the European Union

Now starts the transition period which will last until 31 December 2020. Everything should stay the same for the rest of the year.  

27 EU members minus the UK
The UK has to continue following EU laws and continue putting money in to the EU coffer.  The big difference is that the UK no longer gets to vote in the EU Parliament.

EU citizens are still allowed to live and work in the UK.  UK citizens can still live and work in the EU.  At least until the end of the year.  Then there need to be agreements on the rights of EU and UK citizens residing in each other's territory.  For example, what happens to all of the British who have bought homes and retired in Spain?

The UK and the EU will have to agree on a new trade deal.  Plus individual trade deals with the rest of the world.

The biggest sticking point is going to be the Irish border.  The Good Friday Agreement opened the border and put an end to the Troubles.  

During the Troubles there were only 20 border crossings between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland.  Today there are 208 border crossings.

It's quite the mess.  The UK wanted to close its borders with the EU.  Now Northern Ireland is the new physical border between the UK and EU.  No one wants the Irish border closed or a return of the Troubles. 

Pre-Brexit vs My Future UK Prediction

Who knows what the end result will end up looking like?  Personally I think Brexit will result in the eventual breakup of the UK.  Eventually, the two Irelands are going to end up as a united Ireland.  Scotland voted to remain in the EU during the last referendum but they voted overwhelmingly to remain in the EU so it's just a matter of time before Scotland eventually leaves the UK.  The future UK will probably just be the United Kingdom of England and Wales.  This is just my personal opinion.  I don't have a crystal ball but this is what I'd bet on.

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